Deportations & Anti-ICE Protests - Part II
$GEO $CXW - Follow-up Ideas
In Part I of the Trade Ideas for Deportations & Anti-ICE Protests, I made the case for EVC 0.00%↑ , a Latino media company that may mirror the MEME Potential of UONE 0.00%↑ during the BLM movement.
Today, I am making a new idea on potential trade beneficiaries: GEO 0.00%↑ and CXW 0.00%↑ .
For anyone following “Trump Trades”, specifically trades that would benefit from a Trump presidency, these are not new ideas. In fact, the stocks have done well already based on an increase expectation in deportations and prisoner counts increasing. Here is the CEO of CoreCivic ($CXW) himself recently:
“Our team has always been mission and outcomes-focused, but this is such a significant moment of time in our company’s history. Never in our 42-year company history have we had so much activity and demand for our services as we are seeing right now.”
The stock price of both CXW 0.00%↑ and GEO 0.00%↑ show this sentiment:
One will notice the election bump, but more interesting, both names are essentially flat for the past 6 months! They need a new charge or catalyst and I think the Anti-ICE Protests and increased attention on deportations as a big Trump admin issue are it! Here is a statement this week from Glendale, CA city:
Now a statement like this really got me thinking… What if “Blue States” are not supportive of the Trump DHS/ICE deportation plans and continue to not participate. I don’t think it’s far fetched to imagine the Trump admin boosting private prisons, prison capacity in red states, or simply Project 2025’s plan as highlighted below:
So… explicit plans to increase detention facilities, withdrawal of support of existing facilities (Another demand increase for private), well to me that sounds like we might be getting a 2nd wind of renewed attention and interest in these names.
Trade Expression:
8/15 $26c 20%
Underlying 80%
8/15 $32c 20%
Underlying 80%
Similar to EVC 0.00%↑ , I am expecting attention on the Deportation program will naturally lead to people discovering or revisiting these two “Trump Prison Plays” and want to be positioned NOW for that renewed interest.